02191cas a2200277 a 4500 AALejournalIMF013844 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484341155 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Arezki, Rabah. Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 : Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks / Rabah Arezki, Kaddour Hadri, Prakash Loungani, Yao Rao. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013. 1 online resource (37 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogeneous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years. Mode of access: Internet Hadri, Kaddour. Loungani, Prakash. Rao, Yao. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/180 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/180/001.2013.issue-180-en.xml IMF e-Library