01787cas a2200265 a 4500 AALejournalIMF013924 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484353363 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Bluedorn, John. Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions? / John Bluedorn, Jorg Decressin, Marco Terrones. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013. 1 online resource (35 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. In particular, the marginal effect of an equity/house price drop on the likelihood of a new recession can be substantial. Equity price drops are, however, larger and are more frequent than house price drops, making them on average more helpful as recession predictors. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the term-spread, uncertainty, and oil prices. Lastly, there is no evidence of significant bias resulting from the rarity of recession starts. Mode of access: Internet Decressin, Jorg. Terrones, Marco. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/203 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/203/001.2013.issue-203-en.xml IMF e-Library