01972cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF014347 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484355282 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Comelli, Fabio. Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies / Fabio Comelli. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014. 1 online resource (26 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2014/065 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2014/065/001.2014.issue-065-en.xml IMF e-Library