02188cas a2200265 a 4500 AALejournalIMF014466 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781498345033 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Kaffo Melou, Maximilien. An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries / Maximilien Kaffo Melou, Mariusz Sumlinski, Chris Geiregat. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014. 1 online resource (25 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students We analyse the debt dynamics in countries that benefited from the HIPC/MDRI debt relief initiatives with a view to applying a probabilistic approach to estimating future debt paths for those countries. We extend the probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) proposed by Celasun and others (2006). This required addressing the twin challenges of a the time period that is too short to conduct country-by-country estimations and the presence, suggested by econometric evidence, of a break-point around 2006 in the dynamics of debt accumulation. To overcome the data limitations, we pool the data and estimate a panel VAR, thus taking advantage of the large cross-section. To account for the break-point, while applying a probabilistic approach to forecasting debt paths, we use the post-break-point information so as not to bias the forecasts of debt paths. As an illustration of the approach we apply the methodology to eight countries with different debt profiles. Mode of access: Internet Geiregat, Chris. Sumlinski, Mariusz. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2014/102 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2014/102/001.2014.issue-102-en.xml IMF e-Library