01895cas a2200325 a 4500 AALejournalIMF014968 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781498307543 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Barhoumi, Karim. A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI) / Karim Barhoumi, Laurent Ferrara. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015. 1 online resource (14 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor's benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently. Mode of access: Internet Factor Models imf Growth Rate imf Leading Indicators imf World Trade imf WP imf United States imf Ferrara, Laurent. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2015/020 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2015/020/001.2015.issue-020-en.xml IMF e-Library