China's Growth : Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears? /

The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the 'finance-neutr...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Maliszewski, Wojciech
Other Authors: Zhang, Longmei
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2015/113
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
Description
Summary:The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the 'finance-neutral' gap-our measure of the financial cycle-is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the 'Asia Tigers' and achieves successful convergence to high-income status.
Item Description:<strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
<strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
Physical Description:1 online resource (31 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Access:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students