Steady as She Goes-Estimating Potential Output During Financial 'Booms and Busts' /
Potential output-in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term-is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial 'booms and busts' are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering ap...
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| Other Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Journal |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2015.
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| Series: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2015/233 |
| Online Access: | Full text available on IMF |
| Summary: | Potential output-in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term-is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial 'booms and busts' are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach to illustrate the role financial variables play in driving potential or sustainable output. The results suggest that it moves more steadily during financial 'boom and bust' periods than implied by conventional HP filter estimates, which tend to more closely follow actual GDP. A two-region, multisector New Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions sheds light on the economic forces that could be behind the results obtained from the filter. This has important implications for policymakers. |
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| Item Description: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (33 pages) |
| Format: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Access: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |