01984cas a2200277 a 4500 AALejournalIMF015595 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781513503271 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Berger, Helge. Steady as She Goes-Estimating Potential Output During Financial 'Booms and Busts' / Helge Berger, Thomas Dowling, Sergi Lanau, Mico Mrkaic. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015. 1 online resource (33 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Potential output-in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term-is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial 'booms and busts' are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach to illustrate the role financial variables play in driving potential or sustainable output. The results suggest that it moves more steadily during financial 'boom and bust' periods than implied by conventional HP filter estimates, which tend to more closely follow actual GDP. A two-region, multisector New Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions sheds light on the economic forces that could be behind the results obtained from the filter. This has important implications for policymakers. Mode of access: Internet Dowling, Thomas. Lanau, Sergi. Mrkaic, Mico. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2015/233 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2015/233/001.2015.issue-233-en.xml IMF e-Library