02063cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF016038 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781513519272 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Plotnikov, Dmitry. Crime and Output : Theory and Application to the Northern Triangle of Central America / Dmitry Plotnikov. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2020. 1 online resource (25 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper presents a structural model of crime and output. Individuals make an occupational choice between criminal and legal activities. The return to becoming a criminal is endogenously determined in a general equilibrium together with the level of crime and economic activity. I calibrate the model to the Northern Triangle countries and conduct several policy experiments. I find that for a country like Honduras crime reduces GDP by about 3 percent through its negative effect on employment indirectly, in addition to direct costs of crime associated with material losses, which are in line with literature estimates. Also, the model generates a non-linear effect of crime on output and vice versa. On average I find that a one percent increase in output per capita implies about 1\2 percent decline in crime, while a decrease of about 5 percent in crime leads to about one percent increase in output per capita. These positive effects are larger if the initial level of crime is larger. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2020/002 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2020/002/001.2020.issue-002-en.xml IMF e-Library