01988cas a2200277 a 4500 AALejournalIMF016146 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781513525839 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Deghi, Andrea. Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability / Andrea Deghi, Mitsuru Katagiri, Sohaib Shahid, Nico Valckx. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2020. 1 online resource (47 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term. Mode of access: Internet Katagiri, Mitsuru. Shahid, Sohaib. Valckx, Nico. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2020/011 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2020/011/001.2020.issue-011-en.xml IMF e-Library