01935cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF016246 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781513530260 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Alter, Adrian. Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk : A Tale of Two Countries / Adrian Alter, Elizabeth Mahoney. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2020. 1 online resource (43 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students To identify and quantify downside risks to housing markets, we apply the house price-at-risk methodology to a sample of 37 cities across the United States and Canada using quarterly data from 1983 to 2018. This paper finds that downside risks to housing markets in the United States have seemingly fallen over the past decade, while having increased in Canada. Supply-side drivers, valuation, household debt, and financial conditions jointly play a key role in forecasting house price risks. In addition, capital flows are found to be significantly associated with future downside risks to major housing markets, but the net effect depends on the type of flows and varies across cities and forecast horizons. Using micro-level data, we identify households vulnerable to potential housing shocks and assess the riskiness of household debt. Mode of access: Internet Mahoney, Elizabeth. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2020/042 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2020/042/001.2020.issue-042-en.xml IMF e-Library