02072cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF016937 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781498351638 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Behar, Alberto. An Analysis of OPEC's Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash / Alberto Behar, Robert Ritz. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016. 1 online resource (36 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output. Mode of access: Internet Ritz, Robert. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2016/131 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2016/131/001.2016.issue-131-en.xml IMF e-Library