01650cas a2200265 a 4500 AALejournalIMF017246 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781475555523 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Nowak, Sylwia. Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks / Sylwia Nowak, Pratiti Chatterjee. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016. 1 online resource (15 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts. Mode of access: Internet United States imf Chatterjee, Pratiti. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2016/228 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2016/228/001.2016.issue-228-en.xml IMF e-Library