02062cas a2200265 a 4500 AALejournalIMF017313 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781475563207 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Cottarelli, Carlo. Lost and Found : Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics / Carlo Cottarelli, Andrea Presbitero, Antonio Bassanetti. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016. 1 online resource (34 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students The empirical literature on sovereign debt crises identifies the level of public debt (measured as a share of GDP) as a key variable to predict debt defaults and to determine sovereign market access. This evidence has led to the widespread use of (country-specific) debt thresholds to assess debt sustainability. We argue that the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio, whose use is justified on a theoretical and empirical ground, should not be the only fiscal metric to assess the complex relationship between public debt and debt defaults/market access. In particular, we show that, in a large panel of emerging markets, the dynamics of the debt ratio plays a critical role for market access. In particular, given a certain level of debt, a steadily declining debt ratio is associated with a lower probability of debt distress/market loss and with a higher likelihood of market re-access once access had been lost. Mode of access: Internet Bassanetti, Antonio. Presbitero, Andrea. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2016/253 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2016/253/001.2016.issue-253-en.xml IMF e-Library