01935cas a2200265 a 4500 AALejournalIMF017691 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484302798 2075-8669 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Chen, Sophia. A Toolkit to Assess the Consistency Between Real Sector and Financial Sector Forecasts / Sophia Chen, Paola Ganum, Pau Rabanal. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2017. 1 online resource (30 pages) Technical Notes and Manuals <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students e develop a toolkit to assess the consistency between real sector and financial sector forecasts. The toolkit draws upon empirical regularities on real sector and financial sector outcomes for 182 economies from 1980 to 2015. We show that credit growth is positively correlated with real sector performance, in particular when credit growth is unusually high or low. However, the relationship between credit growth and inflation is weak. These results hold for different country groups, including advanced economies, emerging markets and low-income countries. Combining credit growth with other variables such as house prices and the output gap helps to understand real sector outcomes. But including the financial account balance does not make a difference. Mode of access: Internet Ganum, Paola. Rabanal, Pau. Technical Notes and Manuals; Technical Notes and Manuals ; No. 2017/009 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/005/2017/009/005.2017.issue-009-en.xml IMF e-Library