01817cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF018004 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484324790 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Mooney, Henry. Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries : An Assessment of Projection Performance / Henry Mooney, Constance de Soyres. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2017. 1 online resource (48 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at 'moderate' risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected 'residuals'. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment. Mode of access: Internet de Soyres, Constance. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2017/220 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2017/220/001.2017.issue-220-en.xml IMF e-Library