01901cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF018031 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484325759 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Cerra, Valerie. Booms, Crises, and Recoveries : A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications / Valerie Cerra, Sweta Saxena. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2017. 1 online resource (31 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The 'output gap' can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development. Mode of access: Internet Saxena, Sweta. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2017/250 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2017/250/001.2017.issue-250-en.xml IMF e-Library