01825cas a2200265 a 4500 AALejournalIMF018134 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484333143 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Basu, Suman. A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises / Suman Basu, Marcos Chamon, Christopher Crowe. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2017. 1 online resource (42 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate 'histories of vulnerabilities' for countries, regions, and the world. For the global financial crisis, our models report that vulnerabilities in advanced economies were rooted in the bursting of leveraged bubbles, while vulnerabilities in emerging markets stemmed from lengthy booms in credit and asset prices combined with growing weaknesses in the corporate and external sectors. Mode of access: Internet Chamon, Marcos. Crowe, Christopher. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2017/282 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2017/282/001.2017.issue-282-en.xml IMF e-Library