02163cas a2200337 a 4500 AALejournalIMF018296 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484344873 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL An, Zidong. How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? / Zidong An, Joao Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018. 1 online resource (31 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus' (1987) view that behavioral factors-the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news-play a role in the evolution of forecasts. Mode of access: Internet Bias imf Efficiency imf Recession Year imf Recession imf WP imf Argentina imf Jalles, Joao Tovar. Loungani, Prakash. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/039 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2018/039/001.2018.issue-039-en.xml IMF e-Library