01659cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF018317 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484345405 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Jones, Callum. Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle / Callum Jones. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018. 1 online resource (45 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/067 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2018/067/001.2018.issue-067-en.xml IMF e-Library