01946cas a2200277 a 4500 AALejournalIMF018666 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484372555 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Cerovic, Svetlana. Predicting Fiscal Crises / Svetlana Cerovic, Kerstin Gerling, Andrew Hodge, Paulo Medas. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018. 1 online resource (42 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature. Mode of access: Internet Gerling, Kerstin. Hodge, Andrew. Medas, Paulo. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/181 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2018/181/001.2018.issue-181-en.xml IMF e-Library