01952cas a2200277 a 4500 AALejournalIMF018709 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484372364 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Adrian, Tobias. The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk / Tobias Adrian, Federico Grinberg, Nellie Liang, Sheheryar Malik. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018. 1 online resource (40 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)-defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile-more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated. Mode of access: Internet Grinberg, Federico. Liang, Nellie. Malik, Sheheryar. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/180 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2018/180/001.2018.issue-180-en.xml IMF e-Library