02205cas a2200337 a 4500 AALejournalIMF018810 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484380635 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Jung, Jin-Kyu. An Algorithmic Crystal Ball : Forecasts-based on Machine Learning / Jin-Kyu Jung, Manasa Patnam, Anna Ter-Martirosyan. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018. 1 online resource (34 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output variables, thereby assuming a specific functional and stochastic process underlying that process. We pursue a new approach to forecasting by employing a number of machine learning algorithms, a method that is data driven, and imposing limited restrictions on the nature of the true relationship between input and output variables. We apply the Elastic Net, SuperLearner, and Recurring Neural Network algorithms on macro data of seven, broadly representative, advanced and emerging economies and find that these algorithms can outperform traditional statistical models, thereby offering a relevant addition to the field of economic forecasting. Mode of access: Internet Machine Learning Algorithm imf Real GDP imf Test Data imf Time Series imf WP imf United States imf Patnam, Manasa. Ter-Martirosyan, Anna. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/230 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2018/230/001.2018.issue-230-en.xml IMF e-Library