01692cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF019034 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484396230 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Han, Fei. Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan / Fei Han. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2019. 1 online resource (31 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2019/031 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2019/031/001.2019.issue-031-en.xml IMF e-Library