01926cas a2200277 a 4500 AALejournalIMF019049 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484397015 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Prasad, Ananthakrishnan. Growth at Risk : Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance / Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Selim Elekdag, Phakawa Jeasakul, Romain Lafarguette. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2019. 1 online resource (39 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF's bilateral surveillance efforts. Mode of access: Internet Elekdag, Selim. Jeasakul, Phakawa. Lafarguette, Romain. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2019/036 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2019/036/001.2019.issue-036-en.xml IMF e-Library