02537cas a2200337 a 4500 AALejournalIMF021637 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 18.00 USD 9781513573403 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij. Authorities' Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America : Are They Optimistic? / Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luca Ricci, Alejandro Werner, Rene Zamarripa. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021. 1 online resource (42 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities' fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most countries, there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio (though there may be for the components); (ii) fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries over time, albeit they have worsened for others; (iii) in terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; (v) lastly, budget balance rules seem to help contain the size of the fiscal forecast errors. Mode of access: Internet Debt imf Fiscal Policy imf Foreign Exchange imf Informal Economy imf Underground Econom imf Ricci, Luca. Werner, Alejandro. Zamarripa, Rene. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2021/154 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/154/001.2021.issue-154-en.xml IMF e-Library