01947cas a2200313 a 4500 AALejournalIMF021662 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781513582306 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Chen, Sally. Financial Cycles : Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises? / Sally Chen, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021. 1 online resource (79 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers. Mode of access: Internet Business Fluctuations imf Cycles imf Foreign Exchange imf Informal Economy imf Underground Econom imf Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2021/116 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/116/001.2021.issue-116-en.xml IMF e-Library