02116cas a2200337 a 4500 AALejournalIMF021939 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781513594842 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Dizioli, Allan. A Pandemic Forecasting Framework : An Application of Risk Analysis / Allan Dizioli, Daniel Greenwood, Aneta Radzikowski. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021. 1 online resource (35 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models. Mode of access: Internet COVID-19, Epidemiology Modelling and Vaccines Impact imf Externalities imf General Aggregative Models imf Health Behavior imf Time Allocation and Labor Supply imf Virus Variants and Testing imf Greenwood, Daniel. Radzikowski, Aneta. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2021/226 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/226/001.2021.issue-226-en.xml IMF e-Library