02538cas a2200325 a 4500 AALejournalIMF022142 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781589065888 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Goel, Rohit. Analyzing Capital Flow Drivers Using the 'At-Risk' Framework : South Africa's Case / Rohit Goel, Ken Miyajima. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021. 1 online resource (37 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Cross-border capital flows are important for South Africa. They fund the nation's relatively large external financing needs and have important financial stability implications evidenced by the large capital outflows and asset price selloffs during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper adds to the literature on the drivers of South Africa's capital flows by applying the 'at-risk' framework--which differentiates between the likelihood of "extreme" inflows (surges) and outflows (reversals) and of "typical" flows--to both nonresident and resident capital flows. Estimated results show that among nonresident flows, the portfolio debt component is most sensitive to changes in external risk sentiment particularly during reversals. This applies to flows to the sovereign sector. Nonresident equity flows, both portfolio and FDI, are most sensitive to domestic economic activity especially during surges. This applies to flows to the corporate and banking sectors. Results also suggest that resident flows, in particular the FDI component, tend to offset nonresident flows, thus acting as buffers against funding withdrawal during periods of global risk aversion. Mode of access: Internet Diffusion Processes imf Dynamic Quantile Regressions imf Dynamic Treatment Effect Models imf International Investment imf Long-Term Capital Movements imf Time-Series Models imf Miyajima, Ken. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2021/253 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/253/001.2021.issue-253-en.xml IMF e-Library