02064cas a2200337 a 4500 AALejournalIMF022248 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781616357634 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Ghazaryan, Narek. Another Piece of the Puzzle : Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade / Narek Ghazaryan, Alexei Goumilevski, Joannes Mongardini, Aneta Radzikowski. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021. 1 online resource (63 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper extends earlier research by adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms shows significant non-linearities between trade and its determinants during the Covid-19 pandemic. Mode of access: Internet Machine Learning imf Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance imf SWIFT imf Trade Forecast imf Trade imf Goumilevski, Alexei. Mongardini, Joannes. Radzikowski, Aneta. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2021/293 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/293/001.2021.issue-293-en.xml IMF e-Library