02190cas a2200337 a 4500 AALejournalIMF022366 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781513587172 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Celasun, Oya. An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004-17 / Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic, Allan Timmermann. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021. 1 online resource (47 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naive forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors-such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners-can improve the accuracy of some economies' growth forecasts. Mode of access: Internet Econometric and Statistical Methods imf Forecasting and Other Model Applications imf Forecasting, Forecasting Bias and Efficiency imf Hypothesis Testing imf WEO Growth Forecast imf Lee, Jungjin. Mrkaic, Mico. Timmermann, Allan. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2021/216 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/216/001.2021.issue-216-en.xml IMF e-Library