02193cas a2200325 a 4500 AALejournalIMF022373 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781513585413 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Parlak, Vivian. Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU : Application to the COVID Shock / Vivian Parlak, Gonzalo Salinas, Mauricio Vargas. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021. 1 online resource (37 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries' tourism dependency. Mode of access: Internet Classification Methods imf Cluster Analysis imf Factor Models imf Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models imf Principal Components imf Salinas, Gonzalo. Vargas, Mauricio. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2021/218 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/218/001.2021.issue-218-en.xml IMF e-Library