07767cas a2200793 a 4500 AALejournalIMF022718 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 20.00 USD 9798400207082 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL de Soyres, Constance. Public Debt and Real GDP : Revisiting the Impact / Constance de Soyres, Reina Kawai, Mengxue Wang. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2022. 1 online resource (55 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public debt for 178 countries over 1995-2020, we find that the impact of an unanticipated increase in public debt on the real GDP level is generally negative and varies depending on other fundamental characteristics. Specifically, an unanticipated increase in the public debt to GDP ratio hurts real GDP level for countries that have (i) a high initial debt level or (ii) a rising debt trajectory over the five preceding years. On the contrary, an unanticipated increase in public debt boosts real GDP for countries that have (iii) a low-income level or (iv) completed the HIPC debt relief initiative. Mode of access: Internet Fiscal Policy imf International Factor Movements and International Business imf International Finance imf International Investment imf International Lending and Debt Problems imf Long-Term Capital Movements imf Kawai, Reina. Wang, Mengxue. 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