02905cas a2200337 a 4500 AALejournalIMF022964 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 20.00 USD 9798400210754 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Babajanyan, Victoria. The Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model : A Structural Framework for Fiscal Policy Analysis in Armenia / Victoria Babajanyan, Daniel Baksa, Martin Fukac, Eduard Hakobyan. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2022. 1 online resource (64 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper presents an overview of the Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model (AFSM), which is a structural, New-Keynesian, DSGE, small open economy model with a rich fiscal block that includes several expenditure and revenue instruments, and types of debt. The AFSM is now a formal part of the Ministry of Finance analytical toolkit to do macroeconomic fiscal policy scenario analysis, which feeds into policy discussions, budget planning, and the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework. The model was applied to assses the macroeconomic impact of the "first wave" of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Armenian economy, including the mitigating effects of policy responses. AFSM simulations revealed a potential severe impact in 2020, with declines in GDP and consumption of 12.9 and 11.7 percent, respectively, and a cumulative loss of GDP of 38 percent for the period 2020-2023. They also highlighted a significant fiscal outlook deterioration that would increase public debt-to-GDP ratios by 18.8 percentage points over 2020-23. The package of counter-cyclical fiscal measures of 3.6 percent of GDP, however, was estimated to cushion the 2020 GDP decline by almost 2 percentage points, as well as protect jobs. A second AFSM application related to the 2018 public investment under-execution showed the importance of improving the efficiency of public investment to have positive macroeconomic and fiscal effects. Mode of access: Internet Fiscal Policy imf International Lending and Debt Problems imf Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development imf Money and Interest Rates imf Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles imf Baksa, Daniel. Fukac, Martin. Hakobyan, Eduard.. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2022/118 Full text available on IMF https://elibrary.imf.org/openurl?genre=journal&issn=1018-5941&volume=2022&issue=118 IMF e-Library