02298cas a2200337 a 4500 AALejournalIMF022977 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 20.00 USD 9798400212178 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Aiyar, Shekhar. International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns / Shekhar Aiyar, Davide Malacrino, Adil Mohommad, Andrea Presbitero. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2022. 1 online resource (48 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic-response policies have international spillovers. Bilateral product-level data covering about 95 percent of global goods trade reveals sizable negative international spillovers to trade from supply disruptions due to domestic lockdowns. These international spillovers accounted for up to 60 percent of the observed decline in trade in the early phase of the pandemic, but their effect was shortlived, concentrated among goods produced in key global value chains, and mitigated by the availability of remote working and the size of the fiscal response to the pandemic. Mode of access: Internet Empirical Studies of Trade imf Globalization imf Health imf Public Health imf Regulation imf Malacrino, Davide. Mohommad, Adil. Presbitero, Andrea.. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2022/120 Full text available on IMF https://elibrary.imf.org/openurl?genre=journal&issn=1018-5941&volume=2022&issue=120 IMF e-Library