02147cas a2200325 a 4500 AALejournalIMF023182 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 9798400217630 20.00 USD 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Queyranne, Maximilien. Inflation-at-Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia / Maximilien Queyranne, Romain Lafarguette, Kubi Johnson. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2022. 1 online resource (56 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections. The paper uncovers interesting features of inflation dynamics in the region, including the role of backward versus forward-looking drivers, non-linearities, and heterogeneous and delayed exchange rate pass-through. The results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy and central bank communication in the Middle East and Central Asia and emerging markets in general. Mode of access: Internet Criteria for Decision-Making Under Risk and Uncertainty imf Deflation imf Forecasting and Other Model Applications imf Inflation imf Price Level imf Johnson, Kubi. Lafarguette, Romain. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2022/168 Full text available on IMF https://elibrary.imf.org/openurl?genre=journal&issn=1018-5941&volume=2022&issue=168 IMF e-Library