02238cas a2200313 a 4500 AALejournalIMF023204 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 9798400219788 20.00 USD 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Pescatori, Andrea. OPEC and the Oil Market / Andrea Pescatori, Yousef Nazer. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2022. 1 online resource (30 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper studies the historical importance of OPEC for oil price fluctuations. An event-study approach is used to identify the effects of OPEC announcements on oil price fluctuations. Results show that price volatility is higher than typical around OPEC meetings. Also, members' compliance, a proxy for credibility, has strongly fluctuated over time. An ordered multinomial logit framework identifies the main factors that explain OPEC's decisions to cut, maintain, or boost members' oil production and is able to successfully predict OPEC meeting outcomes 66 percent of the time, between 1989 and 2019. Cyclical oil price fluctuations (as opposed to persistent shifts in levels) drive OPEC's decisions, suggesting that OPEC's objective is to stabilize the oil price rather than countering fundamental shifts in demand and supply. Low OPEC's market share reduces the probability of a production cut. Finally, the transparency of OPEC's statements has modestly improved between 2002 and 2019. Mode of access: Internet Economic Development imf Energy imf Environment imf Natural Resources imf Other Primary Products imf Nazer, Yousef. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2022/183 Full text available on IMF https://elibrary.imf.org/openurl?genre=journal&issn=1018-5941&volume=2022&issue=183 IMF e-Library