Leading Indicators of Currency Crises /

This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold va...

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מידע ביבליוגרפי
מחבר ראשי: Kaminsky, Graciela
פורמט: כתב-עת
שפה:English
יצא לאור: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1997.
סדרה:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 1997/079
גישה מקוונת:Full text available on IMF
תיאור
סיכום:This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning 'signal' that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
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תיאור פיזי:1 online resource (43 pages)
פורמט:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
גישה:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students