Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan /
This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It finds that (i) markup relationships, excess money and the output gap are particularly relevant long-run determinants for an equilibrium correction model (EqCM) of inflation; (ii) with intercept correction...
| Autor principal: | |
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| Formato: | Periódico |
| Idioma: | English |
| Publicado em: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2001.
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| Colecção: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2001/082 |
| Acesso em linha: | Full text available on IMF |
| Resumo: | This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It finds that (i) markup relationships, excess money and the output gap are particularly relevant long-run determinants for an equilibrium correction model (EqCM) of inflation; (ii) with intercept corrections, one-year ahead inflation forecast performance of the EqCM is good; and (iii) forecast accuracy can be improved by combining forecasts of the EqCM with those made by rival models. The EqCM obtained would serve for structural model-based inflation forecasting. It also highlights the importance of adjustment to a pure model-based forecast by utilizing information of alternative models. The methodology employed is applicable to a wider range of countries including some emerging market economies. |
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| Descrição do item: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Descrição Física: | 1 online resource (35 pages) |
| Formato: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Acesso: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |