Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises /

In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in...

Πλήρης περιγραφή

Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
Κύριος συγγραφέας: Chan-Lau, Jorge
Μορφή: Επιστημονικό περιοδικό
Γλώσσα:English
Έκδοση: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2003.
Σειρά:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2003/106
Διαθέσιμο Online:Full text available on IMF
Περιγραφή
Περίληψη:In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.
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Φυσική περιγραφή:1 online resource (20 pages)
Μορφή:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Πρόσβαση:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students