Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits : An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction /
Many estimates of early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis have reported incorrect standard errors because of serial correlation in the context of panel probit regressions. This paper documents the magnitude of the problem, proposes and tests a solution, and applies it to previously publ...
| Prif Awdur: | |
|---|---|
| Awduron Eraill: | |
| Fformat: | Cylchgrawn |
| Iaith: | English |
| Cyhoeddwyd: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2004.
|
| Cyfres: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2004/039 |
| Mynediad Ar-lein: | Full text available on IMF |
| Crynodeb: | Many estimates of early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis have reported incorrect standard errors because of serial correlation in the context of panel probit regressions. This paper documents the magnitude of the problem, proposes and tests a solution, and applies it to previously published EWS estimates. We find that (1) the uncorrected probit estimates substantially underestimate the true standard errors, by up to a factor of four; (2) a heteroskedasicity- and autocorrelation-corrected (HAC) procedure produces accurate estimates; and (3) most variables from the original models remain significant, though substantially less so than had been previously thought. |
|---|---|
| Disgrifiad o'r Eitem: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Disgrifiad Corfforoll: | 1 online resource (21 pages) |
| Fformat: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Mynediad: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |