Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources-Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections /
This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yi...
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , , |
| Format: | Zeitschrift |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2007.
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| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2007/070 |
| Online Zugang: | Full text available on IMF |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results. |
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| Beschreibung: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (44 pages) |
| Format: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Zugangseinschränkungen: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |