Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies /
Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequent...
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| Tác giả khác: | , |
| Định dạng: | Tạp chí |
| Ngôn ngữ: | English |
| Được phát hành: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2011.
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| Loạt: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2011/098 |
| Truy cập trực tuyến: | Full text available on IMF |
| Tóm tắt: | Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider. |
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| Mô tả sách: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Mô tả vật lý: | 1 online resource (25 pages) |
| Định dạng: | Mode of access: Internet |
| số ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Truy cập: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |