Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions : An Application to Speculative Attacks /

The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a 'first-...

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Chi tiết về thư mục
Tác giả chính: Flood, Robert
Tác giả khác: Marion, Nancy
Định dạng: Tạp chí
Ngôn ngữ:English
Được phát hành: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1998.
Loạt:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 1998/124
Truy cập trực tuyến:Full text available on IMF
Miêu tả
Tóm tắt:The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a 'first-generation model' of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits, and anticipatory price-setting behavior. The model is used to interpret the 1994 Mexican peso crisis.
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Mô tả vật lý:1 online resource (34 pages)
Định dạng:Mode of access: Internet
số ISSN:1018-5941
Truy cập:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students