Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States /
U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compens...
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| 其他作者: | , |
| 格式: | 杂志 |
| 语言: | English |
| 出版: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2012.
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| 丛编: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2012/089 |
| 在线阅读: | Full text available on IMF |
| 总结: | U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk. |
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| Item Description: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| 实物描述: | 1 online resource (25 pages) |
| 格式: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| 访问: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |