Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate-The Case of Brazil /
Emerging markets have experienced a sizeable decline in their neutral real interest rates until recently. In this paper we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil's time-varying neutral rate based on a range of structur...
| Príomhchruthaitheoir: | |
|---|---|
| Rannpháirtithe: | |
| Formáid: | IRIS |
| Teanga: | English |
| Foilsithe / Cruthaithe: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2014.
|
| Sraith: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2014/084 |
| Rochtain ar líne: | Full text available on IMF |
| Achoimre: | Emerging markets have experienced a sizeable decline in their neutral real interest rates until recently. In this paper we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil's time-varying neutral rate based on a range of structural and econometric models. We assess the implications of incorrectly estimating a time-varying neutral rate using a small structural model with a simple monetary policy instrument rule. We find that policy prescriptions are very different when facing uncertainty of neutral rate and of output gap. Our result contrasts sharply with Orphanides (2002), suggesting that the best response to neutral rate uncertainty is to ensure policy remains highly sensitive to inflation and output variations. |
|---|---|
| Cur síos ar an mír: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Cur síos fisiciúil: | 1 online resource (32 pages) |
| Formáid: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Rochtain: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |