Seeing in the Dark : A Machine-Learning Approach to Nowcasting in Lebanon /

Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the 'nowcasting' challenge familiar to many central banks. Addressing this p...

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מידע ביבליוגרפי
מחבר ראשי: Tiffin, Andrew
פורמט: כתב-עת
שפה:English
יצא לאור: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016.
סדרה:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2016/056
נושאים:
גישה מקוונת:Full text available on IMF
תיאור
סיכום:Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the 'nowcasting' challenge familiar to many central banks. Addressing this problem-and mindful of the pitfalls of extracting information from a large number of correlated proxies-we explore some recent techniques from the machine learning literature. We focus on two popular techniques (Elastic Net regression and Random Forests) and provide an estimation procedure that is intuitively familiar and well suited to the challenging features of Lebanon's data.
תאור פריט:<strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
<strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
תיאור פיזי:1 online resource (20 pages)
פורמט:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
גישה:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students