Chinese Imports : What's Behind the Slowdown? /

Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years. Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40-50 percent of sl...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor principal: Kang, Joong
Outros Autores: Liao, Wei
Formato: Periódico
Idioma:English
Publicado em: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016.
coleção:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2016/106
Acesso em linha:Full text available on IMF
Descrição
Resumo:Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years. Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40-50 percent of slowdown during this period. Weaker exports also account for about 40 percent of slowdown, of which about a quarter is due to stronger RMB. Onshoring-substitution of imported intermediate inputs with domestic production-has not been an additional drag over this period but it continues to slow import growth at a similar pace as previous periods. There is large uncertainty about the impact of rebalancing on the import slowdown due to difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path.
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ISSN:1018-5941
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