How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? /
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a...
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| Outros Autores: | , |
| Formato: | Periódico |
| Idioma: | English |
| Publicado em: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2018.
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| coleção: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2018/039 |
| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: | Full text available on IMF |