Shocks to Inflation Expectations /
The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified as t...
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| Fformat: | Cylchgrawn |
| Iaith: | English |
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Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2022.
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| Cyfres: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2022/072 |
| Pynciau: | |
| Mynediad Ar-lein: | Full text available on IMF |
| Crynodeb: | The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified as that which causes measured expectations to diverge from rationality. Using data for the United States, we find that a positive inflation expectations shock is deflationary and contractionary: inflation, output, and interest rates all fall. These results are inconsistent with the standard New Keynesian model, which predicts inflation and interest rate hikes. We discuss possible resolutions to this new puzzle. |
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| Disgrifiad o'r Eitem: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Disgrifiad Corfforoll: | 1 online resource (52 pages) |
| Fformat: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Mynediad: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |